The US Federal Reserve concluded its first 2-day Fed Open Markets Committee meeting of 2024 holding interest rates at the current 5.25 to 5.50% target, as expected. The Fed funds target rate has been at this level since July 2023.

There has been substantial improvement in curbing inflation, but there remains concern that the decline may not be anchored and could reverse.With the economy and the consumer so strong, there remains a risk of price - wage spiral inflation where consumers continue to drive up the price of goods and services.

So, it appears that the Fed is certainly finished raising rates and the Fed statement no longer includes "policy firming" language about possible additional rate increases.

Yet, at the same time, the Fed is not prepared to outline any time frame for its first rate cut of this cycle.  The committee's statement saying that it will not reducing the Fed funds rate until it is certain that inflation is headed back to its 2% target.

We began 2024 with 85% of market participants expecting the first rate cut in March.Prior to today's announcement, only 50% of market participants were expecting such a cut. During Chairman Jay Powell's press conference today, he said that he would not bet on a cut in March. Rate cuts however are likely coming at the FOMC's May or June meeting.

With the recent and pronounced move in the Treasury curve, there has been a lot of discussion in the mainstream financial media suggesting that depositors look to US Treasury bonds.

The simple reality is that short-term US Treasury bonds are designed for corporations, institutions and ultra-high net worth individuals who are trading with increments of $500,000 or more (i.e., would be above the protections of FDIC insurance). For most depositors, US Treasury bonds simply do not represent a viable alternative to savings and money market accounts.

And, it really is not so clear that they represent a good alternative to Certificates of Deposit either.

The financial media is focused on the fact that anyone who bought a long-term Treasury bond in mid to late October - when the 2-year and 3-year rates were over 5% and the 5-year and 10-year were just under 5% - has seen extraordinary appreciation in the value of their bonds over less than 2 months!

This is because interest rates have fallen with 5-year and 10-year Treasury rates now below 4% and the bonds have moved commensurately.

I personally plowed a lot of money into a 5-year US Treasury with a 1.50% coupon that was trading at 84.50 on October 22 and just crossed 89. A 10-year note or anything with still longer duration would have obviously performed still better, but I am quite pleased with these returns, as this represented the most risk that I felt that could take.

The reality is that long-term Treasury bonds are risky. Anyone who locked into long term rates more than two years ago can tell you that they are sitting on (or recognizing) huge losses.  Even in the course of 2023, people who got in before the top in yields in October were getting bruised as billion dollar hedge funds seemed to be conspiring to short the Treasury curve and to create panic over the US government's ability to make due on its obligations (these concerns, of course, are not unfounded and are no less relevant today).

Treasury yields may continue to move down, leading to further appreciation in Treasury bonds, but you are taking that bet if you buy US Treasury bonds, and you may not really want to take that bet if you are an investor or depositor who just wants to lock in yield until maturity. 

And, if you are seeking something that you will hold and that will guarantee a yield to maturity, would you rather get more yield if you can do so in something else even it if is designed to be less liquid?

Quite simply, Certificate of Deposit rates are in a place now where you are going to get more yield. Two weeks ago, Treasury yields fell to a point where even in you are in the highest tax brackets and/or live in high tax states and municipalities who benefit greatly from the state and local tax attributes of Treasury bonds were better off in CDs. Treasury yields, of course, have fallen sill further, and some CD rates have fallen too but you can still lock into great CD rates. (As of the date of this article, the 2-year US Treasury stands at 4.42% and 2-year CDs are yielding as high as 5.25%).

Check current two-year CD rates.

Check current five-year CD rates.

Some depositors - particularly those in New York, Boston, Chicago and California - will insist that they need to be in products that are state and local tax free like Treasurys over the long term.  These depositors may want to consider municipal bonds, which are often federally tax free, and agency notes, particularly notes issued by Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) and Federal Farm Credit Bank (FFCB), that have the same tax attributes as Treasury bonds. You can currently buy municipal bonds or long-term agency notes with significant yield premium over comparable duration Treasury bonds, if you can get comfortable with the credit risk (the federal government would make good on a moral obligation to bail out federal agencies if they ever become insolvent). Some munis and agency notes often offer more yield than similar duration Treasuries because they can be called, but by buying only notes that trade at a discount you can avoid the risk in the call feature (in fact, you will get a nice windfall if yields fall so significantly that they are called quickly).

US Treasury bonds are in the news and they are great trading vehicles designed for institutions and ultra-high net worth investors depositing well over the FDIC limits and needing immediate liquidity. Depositors seeking yield over the long term will do better in CDs, municipal bonds and agency bonds.

Today's Fed announcement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference marked the Fed’s first acknowledgement that inflation is more contained. After having been on hold for four of the last five meetings, the Federal Reserve has now inserted the word "any" into its statement, indicating that additional policy firming may not be necessary to get to the Fed's 2% inflation target by 2025.

The news on inflation has been good.  The Fed’s members see the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index at 3.2% in 2024, down from 3.7% at the last meeting. They also see unemployment at 4.1% and believe that US GDP growth will be at 1.4%. These numbers point to a very soft landing with no recession on the horizon.

With the Fed and market participants adopting the idea that inflation is not going to be part of the permanent landscape, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed will be cutting rates in 2024, and analysts now see more than a 40% likelihood that the Fed's first cut will come before the end of Q1 2024.

As US markets celebrate what looks to be an inflation victory, it is not clear that we are going back to the exceptionally low rate paradigm that we saw from 2008 through 2021 anytime soon, if ever. Sovereign debt, especially in the US, is now at unsustainable levels. Oil prices have been exceptionally low, and are completely out of whack with inflation-adjusted long-term norms. De-globalization of our supply chains and immigration curbs could result in pricing pressures on core commodities and labor costs. And, the climate crisis may soon cause such dislocation in the economy that prices end up on a long-term trajectory upwards.

For now, depositors should think about locking in still high CD rates and lower 30-year mortgage rates.