The Federal Reserve concluded its September 2023 meeting today, holding the Fed Funds rate at its current 5.25% to 5.50% target. The target rate remains at a 22 year high.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not declare victory in the war on inflation, leaving the possibility of another quarter point hike at its next meeting in November on the table. The average Fed target of Fed voting members for the end of 2024 has gone up to 5.10% from 4.60%, and many Fed voting members believe that there will be no change in the Fed funds rate before 2025. This high or higher for longer is the Fed's message.
Still, there are plenty of reasons why the Fed may declare victory on inflation sooner and begin to lower rates (as I discussed in this recent article).
The rising price of oil over the last couple of weeks creates a new wrinkle for the economy and complicates efforts to drive down inflation.
In the immediate aftermath of today's announcement, 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries hit their highest yields in over 14 years (over 5.15% and 4.35%, respectively). There are lots of competitive short-term CD rates today, but we expect more banks to now offer more competitive longer term CDs rates.
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