Amarin Shows Vascepa Is A Mega Blockbuster

Tiny little Amarin Corporation, an Irish pharmaceuticals company, just released the results of the reduce-it trial today.

Amarin was testing the effect of epa - one of the components of fish oil - in patients with a history of heart disease and elevated blood triglycerides. The trial was not expected by many to show much. In fact, the stock which has been trading at it close to its 52 week low going in the trial results.

Shockingly, the trial was very positive. There were 25% fewer events in the group getting vascepa. the P value was .001. 25% is a big number in a large randomized trial. 15-20% is the usual cut off for being clinically significant. Not that many trial achieve a 25% reduction. The p value means that this result could be do chance 1/1000th of the time - p of 0.05 is significant. So this trial is 50x more robust.

The drug is question, Vascepa, is already approved, clinically available, and pretty well-covered by insurance. It also isn’t terribly expensive. The full results will be presented at the American Heart Association meeting In November. I wouldn’t be surprised if the company gets bought before then. With Pfizer or Novartis or someone of their ilk selling Vascepa, it will no doubt be a mega blockbuster.

Editor's Note: Dr. Socolow is long Amarin's stock and its options. He is having a very good day.